Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #971 of 1,000

P0457

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 30,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 989

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 578Deviation -R 8 412

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 989. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 495

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 14 953 to R 28 621
Finished ahead: 258 / 1,000 (25,8%)
At least one ruin: 275 / 1,000 (27,5%)
Median rank: #915 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,52% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.549
Mean bets / session: 4.244
Loss multiplier: 1.0966×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,2% / 104,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 9 01143 wagers · RTP 43,52%

Craps / DiceR 8 07132 wagers · RTP 107,73%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 69231 wagers · RTP 12,55%

BaccaratR 4 60221 wagers · RTP 90,50%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 31418 wagers · RTP 142,03%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 8979 wagers · RTP 36,95%

European RouletteR 1 4878 wagers · RTP 157,03%

BlackjackR 1 4755 wagers · RTP 10,03%

American RouletteR 1 0776 wagers · RTP 30,18%

Lottery / JackpotR 5708 wagers · RTP 35,09%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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