Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #71 of 1,000

P0458

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 81,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 15 718

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 5 718

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 743Deviation R 8 461

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 5 718. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 509

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 994 to R 32 808
Finished ahead: 247 / 1,000 (24,7%)
At least one ruin: 35 / 1,000 (3,5%)
Median rank: #917 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.629
Mean bets / session: 3.719
Loss multiplier: 1.1108×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,8% / 128,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 15 50031 wagers · RTP 113,71%

Virtual Sports BettingR 15 50031 wagers · RTP 96,21%

BaccaratR 11 61018 wagers · RTP 103,06%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 50034 wagers · RTP 35,29%

European RouletteR 5 1608 wagers · RTP 62,50%

Craps / DiceR 4 5157 wagers · RTP 142,86%

American RouletteR 4 5157 wagers · RTP 42,86%

BlackjackR 3 8706 wagers · RTP 166,67%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7507 wagers · RTP 107,14%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 40014 wagers · RTP 757,14%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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