Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #47 of 1,000

P0459

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 85,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 20 866

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 10 866

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 912Deviation R 14 778

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 10 866. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 910

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 14 560 to R 30 885
Finished ahead: 230 / 1,000 (23,0%)
At least one ruin: 269 / 1,000 (26,9%)
Median rank: #948 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,94% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.514
Mean bets / session: 5.619
Loss multiplier: 1.1105×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 76,1% / 97,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 31 50063 wagers · RTP 87,70%

BaccaratR 19 25822 wagers · RTP 68,23%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 14 50058 wagers · RTP 20,69%

BlackjackR 14 01616 wagers · RTP 50,00%

American RouletteR 12 55715 wagers · RTP 166,76%

Craps / DiceR 10 51212 wagers · RTP 166,67%

European RouletteR 9 83212 wagers · RTP 286,05%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 50013 wagers · RTP 82,84%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 00016 wagers · RTP 287,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 9009 wagers · RTP 22,22%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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