Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #918 of 1,000

P0461

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 49,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 702

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 298

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 968Deviation -R 7 330

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 298. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 287

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 15 627 to R 31 022
Finished ahead: 265 / 1,000 (26,5%)
At least one ruin: 323 / 1,000 (32,3%)
Median rank: #907 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,28% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.461
Mean bets / session: 4.708
Loss multiplier: 1.0834×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 62,5% / 84,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 13 73035 wagers · RTP 98,21%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 11 70447 wagers · RTP 59,81%

European RouletteR 10 00025 wagers · RTP 64,00%

Craps / DiceR 6 00015 wagers · RTP 66,67%

BlackjackR 3 92810 wagers · RTP 147,66%

American RouletteR 3 4819 wagers · RTP 93,16%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 8007 wagers · RTP 177,95%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 55,00%

BaccaratR 2 4006 wagers · RTP 65,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 25,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies