Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #55 of 1,000

P0463

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 82,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 28 619

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 8 619

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 6 421Deviation R 15 041

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 8 619. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 10 000

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 997 to R 36 135
Finished ahead: 246 / 1,000 (24,6%)
At least one ruin: 670 / 1,000 (67,0%)
Median rank: #984 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,09% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.758
Mean bets / session: 5.685
Loss multiplier: 1.0607×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,4% / 85,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 26 14364 wagers · RTP 123,02%

BlackjackR 18 63740 wagers · RTP 85,52%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 11 12354 wagers · RTP 35,98%

Craps / DiceR 10 98124 wagers · RTP 60,29%

European RouletteR 10 12121 wagers · RTP 31,94%

American RouletteR 8 18924 wagers · RTP 407,24%

BaccaratR 5 0169 wagers · RTP 87,38%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 42020 wagers · RTP 87,79%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 11715 wagers · RTP 26,68%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6554 wagers · RTP 158,12%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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