Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #779 of 1,000

P0464

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 54,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 121

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 5 879

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 422Deviation -R 4 456

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 5 879. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 848

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 995 to R 30 689
Finished ahead: 251 / 1,000 (25,1%)
At least one ruin: 47 / 1,000 (4,7%)
Median rank: #829 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,93% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.429
Mean bets / session: 4.006
Loss multiplier: 1.11×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,8% / 110,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 9 20731 wagers · RTP 71,77%

BaccaratR 8 01927 wagers · RTP 115,74%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 25025 wagers · RTP 48,00%

American RouletteR 4 75216 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 86113 wagers · RTP 120,42%

Craps / DiceR 3 56412 wagers · RTP 83,33%

European RouletteR 3 26711 wagers · RTP 63,64%

BlackjackR 2 0797 wagers · RTP 92,86%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 116,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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