Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #951 of 1,000

P0465

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 27,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 88

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 912

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 465Deviation -R 8 447

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 912. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 647

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 985 to R 28 672
Finished ahead: 214 / 1,000 (21,4%)
At least one ruin: 8 / 1,000 (0,8%)
Median rank: #925 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,03% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.758
Mean bets / session: 3.271
Loss multiplier: 1.0189×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,7% / 139,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 7 32228 wagers · RTP 82,04%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 88939 wagers · RTP 24,35%

European RouletteR 4 3737 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 80228 wagers · RTP 90,60%

Craps / DiceR 3 76214 wagers · RTP 125,41%

BlackjackR 2 7558 wagers · RTP 173,50%

American RouletteR 2 5998 wagers · RTP 25,24%

BaccaratR 1 7067 wagers · RTP 140,86%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 03514 wagers · RTP 28,60%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6284 wagers · RTP 35,08%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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