Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #1000 of 1,000

P0466

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 19,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 19 996

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 381Deviation -R 18 614

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 19 996. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 13 702

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 27 160 to R 41 253
Finished ahead: 282 / 1,000 (28,2%)
At least one ruin: 742 / 1,000 (74,2%)
Median rank: #992 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,41% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.739
Mean bets / session: 5.683
Loss multiplier: 1.0841×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 67,7% / 117,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 8 03849 wagers · RTP 39,52%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7 48674 wagers · RTP 1,46%

BlackjackR 7 14020 wagers · RTP 112,48%

European RouletteR 4 37220 wagers · RTP 15,10%

American RouletteR 3 36915 wagers · RTP 2,49%

Craps / DiceR 3 29310 wagers · RTP 28,85%

BaccaratR 2 47412 wagers · RTP 192,74%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 91114 wagers · RTP 95,66%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 1799 wagers · RTP 29,55%

Lottery / JackpotR 75316 wagers · RTP 8,50%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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