Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #954 of 1,000

P0467

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 21,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 78

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 922

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 451Deviation -R 8 471

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 922. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 975

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 983 to R 31 422
Finished ahead: 251 / 1,000 (25,1%)
At least one ruin: 12 / 1,000 (1,2%)
Median rank: #896 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.27
Mean bets / session: 5.271
Loss multiplier: 1.0829×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 79,4% / 111,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 7 68731 wagers · RTP 123,34%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 81533 wagers · RTP 21,10%

BlackjackR 4 87916 wagers · RTP 83,80%

Craps / DiceR 4 60918 wagers · RTP 112,78%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 27813 wagers · RTP 84,23%

European RouletteR 3 82818 wagers · RTP 55,77%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 31517 wagers · RTP 74,93%

BaccaratR 2 94315 wagers · RTP 17,05%

American RouletteR 2 32210 wagers · RTP 78,29%

Lottery / JackpotR 7839 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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