Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #862 of 1,000

P0468

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 60,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 2 053

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 7 947

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 309Deviation -R 5 638

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 7 947. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 582

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 000 to R 30 675
Finished ahead: 224 / 1,000 (22,4%)
At least one ruin: 87 / 1,000 (8,7%)
Median rank: #921 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,16% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.388
Mean bets / session: 4.709
Loss multiplier: 1.0078×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 71,9% / 123,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Virtual Sports BettingR 13 73336 wagers · RTP 92,77%

CrashR 13 34235 wagers · RTP 89,83%

BaccaratR 6 12816 wagers · RTP 110,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 00024 wagers · RTP 33,33%

BlackjackR 4 97913 wagers · RTP 96,15%

American RouletteR 4 19211 wagers · RTP 155,32%

Craps / DiceR 3 83010 wagers · RTP 80,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 75015 wagers · RTP 110,00%

European RouletteR 3 4479 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 28,57%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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