Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #18 of 1,000

P0470

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 93,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 33 447

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 23 447

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 032Deviation R 26 479

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 23 447. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 953

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 12 300 to R 28 612
Finished ahead: 175 / 1,000 (17,5%)
At least one ruin: 192 / 1,000 (19,2%)
Median rank: #955 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,34% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.619
Mean bets / session: 4.856
Loss multiplier: 1.0415×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 58,3% / 106,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 17 17435 wagers · RTP 77,39%

American RouletteR 11 07113 wagers · RTP 60,14%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 11 00044 wagers · RTP 336,36%

European RouletteR 9 28211 wagers · RTP 135,44%

BlackjackR 8 86211 wagers · RTP 108,44%

Craps / DiceR 7 65410 wagers · RTP 48,68%

BaccaratR 6 4268 wagers · RTP 132,78%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 0008 wagers · RTP 95,65%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 75011 wagers · RTP 318,18%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 50025 wagers · RTP 8,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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