Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #974 of 1,000

P0471

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 44,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 993

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 236Deviation -R 8 756

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 993. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 978

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 948 to R 44 353
Finished ahead: 274 / 1,000 (27,4%)
At least one ruin: 558 / 1,000 (55,8%)
Median rank: #965 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,13% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.649
Mean bets / session: 5.215
Loss multiplier: 1.0112×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,7% / 99,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 11 24142 wagers · RTP 28,45%

CrashR 9 57247 wagers · RTP 74,83%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 22543 wagers · RTP 124,62%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 21513 wagers · RTP 156,16%

American RouletteR 2 47917 wagers · RTP 1,94%

BlackjackR 1 6309 wagers · RTP 72,42%

BaccaratR 1 35711 wagers · RTP 188,81%

Craps / DiceR 1 00810 wagers · RTP 108,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 52110 wagers · RTP 44,15%

Three-Reel SlotR 50411 wagers · RTP 48,91%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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