Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #1 of 1,000

P0472

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 98,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 79 862

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 69 862

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 4 656Deviation R 74 518

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 69 862. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 961

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 16 129 to R 42 342
Finished ahead: 188 / 1,000 (18,8%)
At least one ruin: 194 / 1,000 (19,4%)
Median rank: #956 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,82% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.782
Mean bets / session: 4.758
Loss multiplier: 1.0129×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 80,1% / 128,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 30 14432 wagers · RTP 175,00%

CrashR 23 00046 wagers · RTP 58,70%

European RouletteR 17 89819 wagers · RTP 205,26%

BaccaratR 15 95917 wagers · RTP 148,96%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 14 00056 wagers · RTP 278,57%

BlackjackR 10 36211 wagers · RTP 77,27%

Craps / DiceR 6 5947 wagers · RTP 114,29%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 00010 wagers · RTP 134,27%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 30023 wagers · RTP 26,09%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 533,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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