Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #830 of 1,000

P0473

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 58,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 080

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 920

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 942Deviation -R 4 978

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 920. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 183

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 993 to R 28 656
Finished ahead: 240 / 1,000 (24,0%)
At least one ruin: 34 / 1,000 (3,4%)
Median rank: #904 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,38% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.535
Mean bets / session: 3.405
Loss multiplier: 1.0076×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 61,8% / 91,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 16 46033 wagers · RTP 116,19%

BlackjackR 10 58820 wagers · RTP 95,83%

Craps / DiceR 5 75311 wagers · RTP 70,05%

BaccaratR 5 34010 wagers · RTP 68,50%

American RouletteR 5 17910 wagers · RTP 52,54%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 75019 wagers · RTP 31,58%

European RouletteR 4 1968 wagers · RTP 76,36%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 4147 wagers · RTP 148,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 20012 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 166,67%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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