Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #42 of 1,000

P0474

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 90,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 22 758

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 12 758

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 283Deviation R 14 041

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 12 758. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 6 254

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 983 to R 27 937
Finished ahead: 246 / 1,000 (24,6%)
At least one ruin: 1 / 1,000 (0,1%)
Median rank: #802 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,74% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.144
Mean bets / session: 3.727
Loss multiplier: 1.0844×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,2% / 112,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 10 08024 wagers · RTP 161,46%

BaccaratR 5 88014 wagers · RTP 111,43%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 00020 wagers · RTP 10,00%

American RouletteR 4 20010 wagers · RTP 440,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 9407 wagers · RTP 92,56%

Craps / DiceR 2 5206 wagers · RTP 66,67%

BlackjackR 2 1005 wagers · RTP 80,00%

European RouletteR 1 2603 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 25,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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