Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #947 of 1,000

P0475

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 23,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 131

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 869

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 172Deviation -R 8 696

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 869. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 7 890

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 988 to R 28 164
Finished ahead: 272 / 1,000 (27,2%)
At least one ruin: 13 / 1,000 (1,3%)
Median rank: #862 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 14,40% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.228
Mean bets / session: 3.995
Loss multiplier: 1.0335×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 77,0% / 118,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 6 55025 wagers · RTP 83,27%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 77325 wagers · RTP 10,37%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 65513 wagers · RTP 101,48%

European RouletteR 3 64811 wagers · RTP 77,33%

American RouletteR 3 42012 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 3 20810 wagers · RTP 105,58%

BaccaratR 2 98710 wagers · RTP 163,43%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 30212 wagers · RTP 66,25%

Craps / DiceR 1 3267 wagers · RTP 4,37%

Lottery / JackpotR 3315 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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