Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #129 of 1,000

P0476

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 77,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 501

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 501

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 082Deviation R 3 583

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 501. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 714

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 000 to R 32 913
Finished ahead: 245 / 1,000 (24,5%)
At least one ruin: 75 / 1,000 (7,5%)
Median rank: #929 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 12,66% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.546
Mean bets / session: 3.25
Loss multiplier: 1.096×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 61,2% / 95,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 10 76013 wagers · RTP 144,38%

CrashR 10 50021 wagers · RTP 127,38%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9 25037 wagers · RTP 21,62%

BaccaratR 5 1306 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Craps / DiceR 5 1306 wagers · RTP 133,33%

American RouletteR 4 8656 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4 8056 wagers · RTP 234,13%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 9896 wagers · RTP 52,70%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 45,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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