Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #956 of 1,000

P0477

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 48,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 77

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 923

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 365Deviation -R 7 558

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 923. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 898

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 13 575 to R 30 205
Finished ahead: 239 / 1,000 (23,9%)
At least one ruin: 225 / 1,000 (22,5%)
Median rank: #946 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 16,86% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.276
Mean bets / session: 4.982
Loss multiplier: 1.0527×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,9% / 94,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 19 15633 wagers · RTP 97,81%

CrashR 16 44938 wagers · RTP 146,81%

European RouletteR 10 25018 wagers · RTP 23,09%

American RouletteR 8 29713 wagers · RTP 32,36%

BaccaratR 8 26012 wagers · RTP 79,13%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 86116 wagers · RTP 104,13%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 85323 wagers · RTP 10,30%

BlackjackR 2 3864 wagers · RTP 218,19%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 8729 wagers · RTP 55,48%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 133,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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