Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #922 of 1,000

P0478

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 41,9% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 688

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 312

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 359Deviation -R 7 953

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 312. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 604

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 976 to R 25 659
Finished ahead: 242 / 1,000 (24,2%)
At least one ruin: 2 / 1,000 (0,2%)
Median rank: #884 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,90% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.19
Mean bets / session: 3.399
Loss multiplier: 1.0124×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 73,4% / 109,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 8 08028 wagers · RTP 58,71%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7 52320 wagers · RTP 94,41%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 60923 wagers · RTP 16,34%

American RouletteR 2 8728 wagers · RTP 112,29%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 14711 wagers · RTP 68,70%

Craps / DiceR 1 8064 wagers · RTP 11,18%

BaccaratR 1 5169 wagers · RTP 116,41%

European RouletteR 8572 wagers · RTP 273,05%

BlackjackR 8462 wagers · RTP 15,60%

Lottery / JackpotR 7948 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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