Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #818 of 1,000

P0479

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 56,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 248

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 752

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 736Deviation -R 5 017

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 752. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 551

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 989 to R 30 058
Finished ahead: 271 / 1,000 (27,1%)
At least one ruin: 16 / 1,000 (1,6%)
Median rank: #883 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 12,73% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.632
Mean bets / session: 3.292
Loss multiplier: 1.0351×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 65,5% / 108,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 19 86045 wagers · RTP 125,69%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 88913 wagers · RTP 42,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 75023 wagers · RTP 56,52%

European RouletteR 5 43612 wagers · RTP 16,67%

BaccaratR 4 40310 wagers · RTP 60,70%

American RouletteR 3 6248 wagers · RTP 137,50%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 135,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 3593 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 1 3593 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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