Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #50 of 1,000

P0480

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 83,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 19 678

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 9 678

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 284Deviation R 12 962

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 9 678. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 980

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 624 to R 34 932
Finished ahead: 232 / 1,000 (23,2%)
At least one ruin: 505 / 1,000 (50,5%)
Median rank: #965 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,46% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.634
Mean bets / session: 5.248
Loss multiplier: 1.1182×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 76,1% / 109,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 22 00044 wagers · RTP 88,64%

American RouletteR 12 76022 wagers · RTP 204,55%

Craps / DiceR 9 86017 wagers · RTP 129,41%

European RouletteR 9 28016 wagers · RTP 56,25%

BaccaratR 8 12014 wagers · RTP 84,29%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7 50030 wagers · RTP 23,33%

BlackjackR 6 38011 wagers · RTP 140,91%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 00012 wagers · RTP 68,15%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 50014 wagers · RTP 332,14%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 60026 wagers · RTP 30,77%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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