Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #992 of 1,000

P0481

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 7,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 4 993

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 15 007

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 901Deviation -R 14 106

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 15 007. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 837

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 16 125 to R 33 710
Finished ahead: 277 / 1,000 (27,7%)
At least one ruin: 286 / 1,000 (28,6%)
Median rank: #940 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,78% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.596
Mean bets / session: 3.952
Loss multiplier: 1.0485×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,5% / 82,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 6 61826 wagers · RTP 10,08%

European RouletteR 5 02724 wagers · RTP 54,01%

BaccaratR 3 81011 wagers · RTP 109,49%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 44629 wagers · RTP 7,37%

BlackjackR 2 86111 wagers · RTP 72,40%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 7069 wagers · RTP 89,04%

Craps / DiceR 1 2087 wagers · RTP 48,01%

American RouletteR 1 1855 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 12710 wagers · RTP 28,18%

Lottery / JackpotR 5148 wagers · RTP 38,91%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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