Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #796 of 1,000

P0482

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 59,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 3 735

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 6 265

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 477Deviation -R 4 788

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 6 265. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 499

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 968 to R 29 100
Finished ahead: 251 / 1,000 (25,1%)
At least one ruin: 3 / 1,000 (0,3%)
Median rank: #879 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,19% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.126
Mean bets / session: 4.031
Loss multiplier: 1.1014×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 82,9% / 82,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 7 11218 wagers · RTP 93,52%

American RouletteR 5 99214 wagers · RTP 150,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 62814 wagers · RTP 68,57%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 25021 wagers · RTP 28,57%

BlackjackR 5 13612 wagers · RTP 112,50%

BaccaratR 2 8307 wagers · RTP 88,47%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 0008 wagers · RTP 50,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 6204 wagers · RTP 52,84%

European RouletteR 1 5334 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 40,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies