Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #51 of 1,000

P0484

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 80,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 19 591

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 9 591

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 4 381Deviation R 13 972

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 9 591. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 966

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 810 to R 36 412
Finished ahead: 276 / 1,000 (27,6%)
At least one ruin: 472 / 1,000 (47,2%)
Median rank: #960 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,02% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.683
Mean bets / session: 5.734
Loss multiplier: 1.064×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,9% / 75,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 29 50059 wagers · RTP 132,20%

BaccaratR 19 59434 wagers · RTP 118,20%

European RouletteR 14 88426 wagers · RTP 123,37%

Virtual Sports BettingR 14 00028 wagers · RTP 157,96%

BlackjackR 13 31723 wagers · RTP 82,61%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 11 25045 wagers · RTP 31,11%

American RouletteR 6 36911 wagers · RTP 54,55%

Craps / DiceR 4 6328 wagers · RTP 75,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 75011 wagers · RTP 72,73%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 20012 wagers · RTP 83,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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