Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #908 of 1,000

P0485

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 56,2% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 979

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 021

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 969Deviation -R 7 051

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 021. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 629

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 000 to R 29 297
Finished ahead: 261 / 1,000 (26,1%)
At least one ruin: 77 / 1,000 (7,7%)
Median rank: #925 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,26% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.174
Mean bets / session: 4.006
Loss multiplier: 1.0106×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 58,9% / 128,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

European RouletteR 10 32114 wagers · RTP 83,31%

CrashR 7 93418 wagers · RTP 64,04%

American RouletteR 6 6047 wagers · RTP 140,51%

Virtual Sports BettingR 6 17713 wagers · RTP 95,61%

Three-Reel SlotR 5 41922 wagers · RTP 36,16%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 00020 wagers · RTP 55,00%

Craps / DiceR 4 3066 wagers · RTP 112,17%

BaccaratR 3 9365 wagers · RTP 121,49%

BlackjackR 2 7773 wagers · RTP 34,86%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies