Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #74 of 1,000

P0486

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 83,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 15 439

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 5 439

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 3 315Deviation R 8 753

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 5 439. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 563

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 981 to R 29 152
Finished ahead: 216 / 1,000 (21,6%)
At least one ruin: 2 / 1,000 (0,2%)
Median rank: #920 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,82% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.356
Mean bets / session: 3.182
Loss multiplier: 1.0621×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 66,2% / 107,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 10 50021 wagers · RTP 203,57%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 8 00032 wagers · RTP 46,88%

Craps / DiceR 7 36610 wagers · RTP 198,62%

BlackjackR 5 9208 wagers · RTP 100,00%

American RouletteR 3 7005 wagers · RTP 60,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 5007 wagers · RTP 58,42%

European RouletteR 2 2203 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 2 2203 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 62,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 7007 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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