Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #948 of 1,000

P0487

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 35,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 99

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 901

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 404Deviation -R 7 498

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 901. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 8 672

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 11 641 to R 26 491
Finished ahead: 216 / 1,000 (21,6%)
At least one ruin: 128 / 1,000 (12,8%)
Median rank: #887 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,05% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.398
Mean bets / session: 3.555
Loss multiplier: 1.1103×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,7% / 106,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 8 26727 wagers · RTP 44,39%

CrashR 6 66822 wagers · RTP 71,78%

American RouletteR 3 96113 wagers · RTP 212,29%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 60615 wagers · RTP 27,73%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 0398 wagers · RTP 7,60%

BaccaratR 1 5947 wagers · RTP 53,32%

European RouletteR 1 5244 wagers · RTP 75,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 3566 wagers · RTP 26,25%

BlackjackR 1 1874 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6898 wagers · RTP 89,99%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

← Return to all 1,000 policies