Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #128 of 1,000

P0489

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 80,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 11 504

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 1 504

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 266Deviation R 2 770

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 1 504. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 5 803

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 992 to R 25 503
Finished ahead: 234 / 1,000 (23,4%)
At least one ruin: 28 / 1,000 (2,8%)
Median rank: #787 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,63% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.572
Mean bets / session: 3.155
Loss multiplier: 1.0575×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,0% / 111,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 10 88535 wagers · RTP 60,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 50022 wagers · RTP 27,27%

Craps / DiceR 3 73212 wagers · RTP 116,67%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 73212 wagers · RTP 71,05%

BaccaratR 3 11010 wagers · RTP 78,50%

European RouletteR 2 7999 wagers · RTP 166,67%

American RouletteR 2 4888 wagers · RTP 450,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 5006 wagers · RTP 133,33%

BlackjackR 9333 wagers · RTP 133,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 33,33%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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