Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #115 of 1,000

P0490

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 82,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 12 095

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 2 095

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 4 436Deviation R 6 531

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 2 095. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 953

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 16 935 to R 27 377
Finished ahead: 202 / 1,000 (20,2%)
At least one ruin: 426 / 1,000 (42,6%)
Median rank: #955 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 14,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.293
Mean bets / session: 5.505
Loss multiplier: 1.0982×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 64,9% / 119,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 12 18030 wagers · RTP 136,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 11 25045 wagers · RTP 44,44%

American RouletteR 9 33823 wagers · RTP 86,96%

Virtual Sports BettingR 8 52621 wagers · RTP 145,59%

Lottery / JackpotR 4 80048 wagers · RTP 25,00%

BlackjackR 4 06010 wagers · RTP 100,00%

BaccaratR 4 06010 wagers · RTP 90,00%

Craps / DiceR 3 2488 wagers · RTP 187,50%

European RouletteR 3 2488 wagers · RTP 150,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 75011 wagers · RTP 127,27%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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