Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #43 of 1,000

P0491

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 85,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 22 448

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 12 448

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 202Deviation R 14 649

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 12 448. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 819

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 000 to R 34 135
Finished ahead: 231 / 1,000 (23,1%)
At least one ruin: 104 / 1,000 (10,4%)
Median rank: #937 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 11,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.246
Mean bets / session: 5.523
Loss multiplier: 1.0658×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,3% / 111,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 16 95237 wagers · RTP 152,49%

European RouletteR 12 48926 wagers · RTP 190,54%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9 14337 wagers · RTP 30,90%

American RouletteR 6 14913 wagers · RTP 73,13%

Craps / DiceR 6 14813 wagers · RTP 91,18%

BaccaratR 3 6337 wagers · RTP 114,29%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3 3007 wagers · RTP 155,06%

BlackjackR 3 1146 wagers · RTP 116,67%

Three-Reel SlotR 2 50010 wagers · RTP 40,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 25,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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