Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #966 of 1,000

P0492

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 39,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 16

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 984

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 243Deviation -R 7 740

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 984. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 952

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 16 803 to R 32 400
Finished ahead: 198 / 1,000 (19,8%)
At least one ruin: 228 / 1,000 (22,8%)
Median rank: #954 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,16% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.618
Mean bets / session: 3.388
Loss multiplier: 1.0512×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,7% / 73,1% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 6 11524 wagers · RTP 39,08%

European RouletteR 4 69912 wagers · RTP 188,36%

Craps / DiceR 3 34910 wagers · RTP 125,41%

BaccaratR 3 27511 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 3 20414 wagers · RTP 19,51%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2 61920 wagers · RTP 2,63%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 5879 wagers · RTP 2,89%

BlackjackR 2 3206 wagers · RTP 115,02%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 99410 wagers · RTP 85,11%

Lottery / JackpotR 1 02314 wagers · RTP 61,19%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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