Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #936 of 1,000

P0493

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 51,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 317

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 683

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 315Deviation -R 8 368

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 683. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 752

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 16 326 to R 29 735
Finished ahead: 255 / 1,000 (25,5%)
At least one ruin: 338 / 1,000 (33,8%)
Median rank: #934 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,99% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.292
Mean bets / session: 5.791
Loss multiplier: 1.1166×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 60,4% / 107,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 11 55240 wagers · RTP 79,43%

CrashR 6 08426 wagers · RTP 122,26%

Craps / DiceR 5 42414 wagers · RTP 125,70%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 75734 wagers · RTP 21,97%

European RouletteR 4 13715 wagers · RTP 0,58%

American RouletteR 3 97614 wagers · RTP 67,56%

Virtual Sports BettingR 2 05214 wagers · RTP 139,97%

BaccaratR 1 6659 wagers · RTP 84,22%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 44412 wagers · RTP 18,18%

Lottery / JackpotR 3165 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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