Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #62 of 1,000

P0495

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 81,3% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 17 400

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 7 400

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 615Deviation R 9 015

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 7 400. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 543

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 11 073 to R 32 289
Finished ahead: 281 / 1,000 (28,1%)
At least one ruin: 130 / 1,000 (13,0%)
Median rank: #921 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,67% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.108
Mean bets / session: 4.082
Loss multiplier: 1.0396×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 70,5% / 77,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 14 00028 wagers · RTP 59,82%

BlackjackR 8 5779 wagers · RTP 122,22%

Craps / DiceR 5 7186 wagers · RTP 166,67%

BaccaratR 5 7186 wagers · RTP 98,33%

Three-Reel SlotR 5 50022 wagers · RTP 345,45%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5 25021 wagers · RTP 4,76%

European RouletteR 3 8124 wagers · RTP 75,00%

American RouletteR 1 9062 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 130,35%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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