Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #984 of 1,000

P0496

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 9,0% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 10 000

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 10 000

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 590Deviation -R 9 410

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 10 000. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 851

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 10 000 to R 37 119
Finished ahead: 236 / 1,000 (23,6%)
At least one ruin: 113 / 1,000 (11,3%)
Median rank: #941 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 11,97% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.609
Mean bets / session: 3.699
Loss multiplier: 1.088×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 79,6% / 79,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 57943 wagers · RTP 4,19%

Craps / DiceR 3 35614 wagers · RTP 5,36%

CrashR 3 17217 wagers · RTP 61,20%

BlackjackR 2 66611 wagers · RTP 125,51%

European RouletteR 1 6898 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 59010 wagers · RTP 88,50%

American RouletteR 81313 wagers · RTP 7,26%

Three-Reel SlotR 33310 wagers · RTP 2,40%

Lottery / JackpotR 20613 wagers · RTP 133,01%

BaccaratR 729 wagers · RTP 154,38%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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