Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #957 of 1,000

P0497

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 36,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 66

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 934

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 909Deviation -R 8 025

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 934. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 802

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 9 996 to R 35 730
Finished ahead: 225 / 1,000 (22,5%)
At least one ruin: 49 / 1,000 (4,9%)
Median rank: #935 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,58% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.747
Mean bets / session: 4.287
Loss multiplier: 1.0057×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 84,7% / 92,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 12 40347 wagers · RTP 114,89%

Craps / DiceR 11 09425 wagers · RTP 111,65%

American RouletteR 7 42016 wagers · RTP 57,28%

BaccaratR 6 65114 wagers · RTP 98,84%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 6 32841 wagers · RTP 24,35%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4 88418 wagers · RTP 79,34%

European RouletteR 3 23913 wagers · RTP 19,67%

BlackjackR 2 6078 wagers · RTP 93,54%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 1166 wagers · RTP 58,33%

Lottery / JackpotR 82410 wagers · RTP 3,64%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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