Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #998 of 1,000

P0498

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 1,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9

Total allocated

R 20 0002 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 19 991

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 2 059Deviation -R 17 932

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 19 991. Bankroll allocations used: 2.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 909

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 19 871 to R 36 435
Finished ahead: 258 / 1,000 (25,8%)
At least one ruin: 529 / 1,000 (52,9%)
Median rank: #948 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 18,97% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.672
Mean bets / session: 5.149
Loss multiplier: 1.1182×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,4% / 96,5% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 16 55649 wagers · RTP 64,48%

Virtual Sports BettingR 9 16545 wagers · RTP 60,15%

BaccaratR 6 42415 wagers · RTP 92,78%

Craps / DiceR 4 84612 wagers · RTP 108,79%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 4 59338 wagers · RTP 17,20%

BlackjackR 4 04312 wagers · RTP 143,46%

American RouletteR 4 00711 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 3 54922 wagers · RTP 31,08%

European RouletteR 2 52213 wagers · RTP 58,05%

Lottery / JackpotR 86215 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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