Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #975 of 1,000

P0499

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 27,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 993

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 255Deviation -R 8 738

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 993. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 775

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 14 901 to R 27 337
Finished ahead: 252 / 1,000 (25,2%)
At least one ruin: 264 / 1,000 (26,4%)
Median rank: #933 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,81% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.769
Mean bets / session: 3.242
Loss multiplier: 1.0996×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 71,1% / 118,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 12 31446 wagers · RTP 75,50%

American RouletteR 4 92413 wagers · RTP 91,00%

Craps / DiceR 4 85416 wagers · RTP 64,73%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 3 94126 wagers · RTP 57,78%

BaccaratR 2 7078 wagers · RTP 112,09%

European RouletteR 1 9789 wagers · RTP 1,52%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5065 wagers · RTP 145,06%

BlackjackR 1 4054 wagers · RTP 1,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 81211 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7627 wagers · RTP 98,43%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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