Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #972 of 1,000

P0500

Large bets, frequent. The visible result sits at the 39,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 9 992

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 913Deviation -R 8 079

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 9 992. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 9 970

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 14 936 to R 30 970
Finished ahead: 204 / 1,000 (20,4%)
At least one ruin: 375 / 1,000 (37,5%)
Median rank: #962 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 12,53% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 1.715
Mean bets / session: 5.815
Loss multiplier: 1.0904×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,3% / 125,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

High-Volatility Video SlotR 9 82756 wagers · RTP 43,49%

CrashR 8 84342 wagers · RTP 126,39%

Craps / DiceR 4 38722 wagers · RTP 121,68%

Three-Reel SlotR 4 36622 wagers · RTP 80,23%

American RouletteR 4 22722 wagers · RTP 67,92%

European RouletteR 3 36417 wagers · RTP 55,56%

Lottery / JackpotR 2 76232 wagers · RTP 43,45%

BaccaratR 2 61811 wagers · RTP 78,86%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 62610 wagers · RTP 1,82%

BlackjackR 1 0857 wagers · RTP 72,53%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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