Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #665 of 1,000

P0501

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 36,5% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 6 050

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 3 950

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 512Deviation -R 3 438

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 3 950. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 543

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 278 to R 11 817
Finished ahead: 307 / 1,000 (30,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #600 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,44% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.391
Mean bets / session: 2.66
Loss multiplier: 1.015×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 56,6% / 82,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 6546 wagers · RTP 33,33%

European RouletteR 1 8273 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5003 wagers · RTP 195,28%

BlackjackR 6091 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 6006 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 50,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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