Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #598 of 1,000

P0503

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 48,6% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 149

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 852

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 587Deviation -R 2 264

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 852. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 658

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 403 to R 14 618
Finished ahead: 280 / 1,000 (28,0%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #617 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,39% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.485
Mean bets / session: 2.062
Loss multiplier: 1.1116×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 67,2% / 112,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

BlackjackR 3 4844 wagers · RTP 212,50%

BaccaratR 2 6133 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 0002 wagers · RTP 93,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 1 0004 wagers · RTP 62,50%

American RouletteR 8711 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 8711 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 8711 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 25,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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