Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #473 of 1,000

P0504

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 35,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 380

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 620

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 140Deviation -R 1 480

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 620. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 080

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 3 490 to R 4 710
Finished ahead: 275 / 1,000 (27,5%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #435 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 11,46% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.339
Mean bets / session: 1.26
Loss multiplier: 1.0226×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 59,9% / 79,7% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 9802 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 50,00%

European RouletteR 4901 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 4901 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 4901 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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