Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #539 of 1,000

P0505

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 46,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 839

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 161

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 175Deviation -R 1 987

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 161. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 906

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 6 567 to R 13 485
Finished ahead: 303 / 1,000 (30,3%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #537 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 15,57% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.367
Mean bets / session: 1.546
Loss multiplier: 1.0953×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 81,0% / 101,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 1 8162 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 1 8162 wagers · RTP 97,50%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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