Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #91 of 1,000

P0506

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 84,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 13 637

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 3 637

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 319Deviation R 3 956

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 3 637. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 560

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 7 099 to R 25 561
Finished ahead: 301 / 1,000 (30,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #606 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 10,80% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.43
Mean bets / session: 1.953
Loss multiplier: 1.064×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 74,5% / 144,9% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

Craps / DiceR 3 4404 wagers · RTP 100,00%

American RouletteR 1 7202 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 8601 wagers · RTP 300,00%

BaccaratR 8601 wagers · RTP 200,00%

BlackjackR 8601 wagers · RTP 250,00%

CrashR 5001 wagers · RTP 500,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 157,45%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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