Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #65 of 1,000

P0507

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 95,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 16 814

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

R 6 814

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 361Deviation R 7 175

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L R 6 814. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 377

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 187 to R 6 164
Finished ahead: 269 / 1,000 (26,9%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #473 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 21,16% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.373
Mean bets / session: 2.622
Loss multiplier: 1.0535×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 71,9% / 102,4% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 3 10211 wagers · RTP 118,18%

European RouletteR 1 6926 wagers · RTP 366,67%

Craps / DiceR 1 4105 wagers · RTP 80,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 33,33%

BaccaratR 5642 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 5002 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BlackjackR 2821 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 2821 wagers · RTP 1 000,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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