Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #604 of 1,000

P0508

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 39,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 7 086

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 2 914

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 371Deviation -R 2 543

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 2 914. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 137

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 913 to R 8 712
Finished ahead: 257 / 1,000 (25,7%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #562 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 19,60% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.648
Mean bets / session: 1.887
Loss multiplier: 1.1012×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 57,3% / 71,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 3346 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 1 5564 wagers · RTP 145,57%

BlackjackR 1 1673 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Craps / DiceR 7782 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 3891 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3891 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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