Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #871 of 1,000

P0509

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 4,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTTail resultNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 1 867

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 8 133

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 794Deviation -R 7 339

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 8 133. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 423

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 045 to R 13 783
Finished ahead: 306 / 1,000 (30,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #592 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 13,89% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.448
Mean bets / session: 2.291
Loss multiplier: 1.0975×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,2% / 76,2% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 7089 wagers · RTP 48,11%

CrashR 3 4427 wagers · RTP 18,16%

European RouletteR 2 4824 wagers · RTP 80,98%

BaccaratR 2 0103 wagers · RTP 66,67%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Craps / DiceR 1 0232 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 7503 wagers · RTP 83,33%

BlackjackR 6701 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5001 wagers · RTP 571,26%

Lottery / JackpotR 5005 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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