Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #425 of 1,000

P0510

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 46,7% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 876

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 124

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 103Deviation -R 1 021

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 124. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 043

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 2 448 to R 3 168
Finished ahead: 201 / 1,000 (20,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #435 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 9,33% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.349
Mean bets / session: 1.987
Loss multiplier: 1.048×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 83,4% / 109,6% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

CrashR 4122 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4122 wagers · RTP 100,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 3003 wagers · RTP 0,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 2061 wagers · RTP 0,00%

American RouletteR 2061 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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