Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #488 of 1,000

P0511

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 44,1% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 8 244

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 1 756

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 244Deviation -R 1 512

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 1 756. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 429

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 4 129 to R 9 328
Finished ahead: 306 / 1,000 (30,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #476 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 21,26% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.362
Mean bets / session: 1.952
Loss multiplier: 1.0421×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 69,0% / 81,3% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 1 3564 wagers · RTP 50,00%

CrashR 1 3564 wagers · RTP 125,00%

European RouletteR 1 0173 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 4004 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 3391 wagers · RTP 200,00%

Virtual Sports BettingR 3391 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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