Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #306 of 1,000

P0513

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 68,4% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 661

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 340

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 392Deviation R 53

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 340. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 1 657

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 5 870 to R 7 135
Finished ahead: 286 / 1,000 (28,6%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #513 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 12,72% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.383
Mean bets / session: 2.764
Loss multiplier: 1.0044×, capped at 1 escalations
Stop loss / win: 55,8% / 128,8% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 2 6537 wagers · RTP 85,71%

BlackjackR 1 5164 wagers · RTP 162,50%

Virtual Sports BettingR 7582 wagers · RTP 0,00%

BaccaratR 7582 wagers · RTP 100,00%

European RouletteR 3791 wagers · RTP 300,00%

Craps / DiceR 3791 wagers · RTP 0,00%

CrashR 3791 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Three-Reel SlotR 2501 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 1001 wagers · RTP 200,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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