Synthetic policy · visible-world rank #261 of 1,000

P0514

Large bets, infrequent. The visible result sits at the 67,8% percentile of this policy's 1,000 replicated outcomes.

VISIBLE RESULTWithin the 5–95% rangeNot evidence of a repeatable advantage

Current bankroll

R 9 853

Total allocated

R 10 0001 / 6 allocations

Observed lifetime P&L

-R 147

Expected P&L given wagers

-R 1 079Deviation R 932

The six-month record

Profit and loss over time

Month-six visible P&L -R 147. Bankroll allocations used: 1.

The same policy under new random paths

-R 2 834

Median final P&L across worlds

5th–95th percentile: -R 8 949 to R 11 449
Finished ahead: 311 / 1,000 (31,1%)
At least one ruin: 0 / 1,000 (0,0%)
Median rank: #628 / 1,000

The fixed behaviour

Policy settings

Base stake: 17,39% of bankroll
Sessions / week: 0.633
Mean bets / session: 2.842
Loss multiplier: 1.0054×, capped at 2 escalations
Stop loss / win: 63,0% / 146,0% of session-start bankroll

The recorded exposure

Where the money was wagered

American RouletteR 5 66412 wagers · RTP 66,67%

Virtual Sports BettingR 5 19211 wagers · RTP 178,23%

BaccaratR 3 3047 wagers · RTP 114,29%

CrashR 1 8884 wagers · RTP 31,25%

Craps / DiceR 1 8884 wagers · RTP 125,00%

High-Volatility Video SlotR 1 2505 wagers · RTP 120,00%

BlackjackR 9442 wagers · RTP 0,00%

Lottery / JackpotR 8008 wagers · RTP 0,00%

European RouletteR 4721 wagers · RTP 0,00%

What this profile can — and cannot — show

A smaller loss is not a profit, and a high rank does not prove skill. Behaviour changes both the wagers selected and the amount of exposure. “Expected” and “luck” are descriptive components, not a perfect causal separation.

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